On May 19, Light & Wonder president and CEO Matt Wilson used a keynote at a Las Vegas gaming conference to describe the category's recent growth and call for an industry response. That source establishes the executive's view; it does not independently prove market size, share-of-wallet movement or future demand.
For market context, KPMG reports that combined 2025 trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $40 billion, while TRM Labs measured more than $20 billion of January 2026 monthly on-chain volume across several venues under its stated methodology. Neither figure is an operator revenue forecast.
What the vendor warning establishes
It establishes that a Tier-1 supplier sees prediction markets as strategically relevant and potentially competitive for discretionary spend. It does not establish how much casino or sportsbook spend moved, whether the same users overlap, or whether an iGaming operator can reproduce venue growth.
Product convergence is therefore a testable operator hypothesis. A shared account and wallet can measure product sequence, but only a defined exposed cohort, comparison group and cost model can establish incremental casino or sportsbook activity.
Regulation and demand are separate gates
US event-contract distribution remains subject to federal and state disputes. The CFTC's official materials describe the federal contract-market framework, but they do not grant an iGaming operator access, venue rights or permission in another jurisdiction.
Outside the US, operators still need product classification, venue contracts, technical access and authorisation for the exact target market. Public venue volume can justify diligence; it cannot replace those gates.
The same-dollar argument cuts both ways
The finite-discretionary-dollar argument is plausible but remains a hypothesis until audience overlap and incremental behaviour are measured. Operators have more than two options: integrate, partner, test a bounded pilot, defer, or reject the category after legal and economic diligence.
The economics of the second model can be tested directly: event contracts, sportsbook and casino sit in one wallet, player view and CRM, so the operator can measure product sequence and incremental retention rather than assume audience overlap. We showed the architecture behind that in the Polybetting operator-stack reveal: liquidity connectivity with UI, analytics, risk, reporting and marketing funnels included, not a bare order-book API the operator team has to build around.
What operators can do about prediction markets now
Adding prediction markets requires permission for the operator's target jurisdiction and product model. Polybetting documents jurisdiction-scoped product controls; the anonymised Curaçao Tier-2 delivery case demonstrates a reported technical scope, not permission or performance in another market.
The defensible conclusion is narrower than the headline: the category is large enough to merit structured diligence. Start with the launch evidence checklist, then decide from rights, cohort economics and risk rather than urgency.