The headline numbers
Professional and on-chain reports document substantial growth, but the figures describe different venues, periods and counting methods:
- KPMG reports more than $40 billion in combined 2025 trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, up from roughly $9 billion in 2024.
- TRM Labs measured more than $20 billion in monthly on-chain volume in January 2026. Its dataset spans several venues and counts maker and taker sides separately.
- 89% of Kalshi's 2025 fee revenue came from sports markets, according to the source cited by KPMG. This is a Kalshi-specific revenue mix, not a market-wide share of bets, users or volume.
- Kalshi generated $263.5 million in fee revenue on $22.9 billion of 2025 volume, according to KPMG's market-entry analysis.
These figures use different datasets and denominators. Annual venue volume, monthly on-chain volume and fee revenue must not be combined into a single market-size estimate without a common methodology.
What the 89% sports figure does — and does not — mean
The 89% figure describes Kalshi's 2025 fee revenue. It does not establish that 89% of all prediction-market bets, users or global volume are sports-related. Venue mix differs materially: TRM Labs found geopolitics, US politics and macro events accounted for most activity in its studied on-chain cohort.
For an operator, sports overlap is therefore a testable product hypothesis rather than a universal audience fact. Measure it by venue, market category and operator cohort before building a sportsbook cross-sell forecast.
Market growth does not select an operator model
KPMG's market-entry analysis compares several roles, including technology vendor, introducing broker, futures commission merchant, clearing organisation and contract market. Those roles have different licences, capital requirements, economics and responsibilities. Venue volume does not prove that one route is the default or that an iGaming operator can reuse its current permission.
For each proposal, record the exact entity, product classification, venue or pricing source, commercial/API rights, clearing and settlement path, retained exposure, target-market permission and revenue denominator. Treat any named integration or distributor claim as date-sensitive until verified from its official source.
The regulatory landscape for iGaming operators
Regulatory clarity varies significantly by jurisdiction, which is the primary determinant of timing for licensed iGaming operators:
- Curaçao — the LOK has been in force since 24 December 2024. The Curaçao Gaming Authority requires the relevant online-gaming or supplier licence and assesses the applicant and operating model. An existing licence should not be assumed to cover a new event-contract product automatically.
- United Kingdom — the Gambling Commission says products currently seen in Great Britain are likely to fall within betting-intermediary or betting-exchange licensing. Product structure determines the route.
- United States — the CFTC framework governs designated contract markets and intermediaries, while federal and state disputes remain active. A gaming licence is not a substitute for the required derivatives-market permissions.
- European and LATAM markets — there is no single portable prediction-market licence. Each target market needs current product-level analysis, including whether the product is treated as betting, exchange trading or another regulated instrument.
Platform readiness and legal authorization are separate workstreams. A delivery estimate must never be presented as proof that an operator may offer the product in a target market.
The B2B comparison landscape
Official product pages show several different vendor-reported models rather than one interchangeable category:
- SOFTSWISS describes fixed-odds prediction-market software and several delivery routes.
- Shift Markets describes prediction-market infrastructure.
- Azuro describes a protocol, SDK, oracle and liquidity model.
- Tecpinion describes an operator platform.
- Matchbook B2B describes a predictions product.
These pages prove what each vendor publicly claims on the review date, not production performance or operator fit. Compare the same fields: pricing model, venue rights, wallet and KYC flow, settlement, retained risk, certification, target-market permission, reporting and evidence for any delivery or outcome claim.
How to handle event-driven launch claims
Major sports and political events can create temporary demand, but event-calendar claims expire quickly. A launch recommendation should use the current tournament dates, the operator's actual legal route and a backwards critical path; stale “launch in the next eight weeks” copy should not remain evergreen after the window closes.
The cross-sell economics that close the business case
The business case depends on the operating model: service fees, broker commissions and venue fees have different denominators. Same-wallet casino cross-sell may improve operator economics, but the effect must be demonstrated as a first-party cohort result with a defined player population, observation window, comparator and LTV methodology. It cannot be inferred from market-volume data.
A shared wallet and player view can reduce cross-product friction, but the exact account, KYC, balance and attribution flow depends on the permitted venue and operator architecture. Require a live demonstration and a controlled cohort plan rather than assume that a direct venue, widget or full-stack label determines cross-sell.
Continue reading: Prediction markets platform — Turbo Stars' B2B operator stack for launching the vertical. Prediction markets vs sportsbook — operator's decision guide. Polymarket for operators — why Polymarket is a liquidity source, not a B2B platform.
Frequently asked questions
How big is the prediction markets industry in 2026?
KPMG reports that combined 2025 trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $40 billion, up from roughly $9 billion in 2024. Separately, TRM Labs measured more than $20 billion in monthly on-chain prediction-market volume in January 2026 across several venues under a methodology that counts maker and taker sides separately.
What share of prediction market activity is sports-related?
KPMG reports that sports drove 89% of Kalshi's 2025 fee revenue. That figure is specific to Kalshi and does not describe all prediction-market bets or users. TRM Labs found geopolitics, US politics and macro events drove most activity in its studied on-chain cohort, so audience mix must be measured by venue.
Which jurisdictions allow prediction markets for iGaming operators in 2026?
There is no universal licence path. Curaçao applies the LOK through the CGA; the UK Gambling Commission says current products are likely to require betting-intermediary or betting-exchange licensing; and US event contracts operate within the CFTC framework while state disputes continue. Each product and target market needs current legal review.
Should an iGaming operator launch prediction markets before the 2026 World Cup?
A launch decision should work backwards from the current event calendar and separate platform delivery from venue access, certification and legal authorization. There is no universal eight-week path across jurisdictions, and event-driven copy must be removed or revalidated after its date window closes.